The AL MVP Race: Still Over.

Written by Bill on .

Hey guys (gender inclusive)? Guys. I hate to interrupt. But listen for a second. 

Look, I know that Miguel Cabrera is an awesome baseball player, and I know he had a huge game last night, and that he's currently two homers back of Josh Hamilton from being in a position to win the first Triple Crown since 1967 (as I write this, he appears to be about five points up over Trout in the batting race, and six RsBI over Hamilton). That'd be a pretty amazing accomplishment, and I know that it's gotta be tempting to go around touting his MVP credentials. 

Here's the thing, though, guys: there's no AL MVP discussion this year. That was canceled. I'm sorry, I thought you'd heard. It's Mike Trout. They made the announcement, like, two months ago. I don't know what rumors you've heard or whatever, but nope, that hasn't changed. It's still off.

The various Wins Above Replacement measures break it down like this (through Tuesday; they'll tick a bit in Miggy's favor when the numbers are updated tomorrow):

Why The Postponed Game Could Help The White Sox

Written by Cee Angi on .

Last night's pitchers' duel was postponed due to rain. Justin Verlander and Chris Sale will not face each other again this season, as the finale of the four-game series between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox never began due to heavy rain the Chicagoland area. The Tigers led the series 2-1 entering last night's game, and the final matchup has been moved to Monday, September 17, at 1:10pm at US Cellular Field. 

While missing a premier pitching matchup is disappointing to anyone who appreciates good pitching, a look at the numbers suggests that the rain-out may be the best thing for the Chicago White Sox, who currently have a one game lead in the AL Central. 

Here are some reasons why the rain postponement could benefit the Chicago White Sox:

  • The most obvious reason is that the White Sox no longer have to face Justin Verlander. Verlander is 2-0 in games against the White Sox this season and has been successful in shutting down the White Sox offense, limiting them to just three earned runs this season (with 17 strikeouts). 

 

  • The White Sox are 5-12 against Detroit this season, and while a win last night would have split the series, the losses on Tuesday and Wednesday night showed a drained team, a struggling offense, and a manager making questionable decisions. The makeup game will be on Monday, which gives the White Sox three days to recalibrate before facing Detroit again. 

 

  • The White Sox head to Minnesota to face the Twins, a team they have dominated this season. The White Sox are 11-4 versus the Twins this season, outscoring the Twins by 21 runs. Chris Sale will start tonight, and he's 2-0 versus the Twins this season, giving up just two runs, which are better than his numbers versus Detroit. 

 

  • The White Sox have a chance to pull away from the Tigers in the standings this weekend, as Detroit plays the Cleveland Indians. While the Twins and Indians are tied for last in the standings, the Tigers have struggled to beat the Indians this year, with a 6-9 record. While the Tigers are outscoring the Indians by 10 runs, it hasn't translated to wins. 

 

  • Justin Verlander will start tonight, and he's 0-2 versus the Indians this season, giving up 6 runs. Though Verlander is typically a high strikeout pitcher, he's struggled to dominate the Indians this season, posting his lowest K/9 versus an opponent in the American League Central. 

 

While history doesn't dictate the future, on the surface it seems that the White Sox have an advantage to gain some wiggle room in the standings ebfore Monday's makeup game against Detroit. Sure, we can argue about momentum and whether or not it's real, but if the White Sox are successful in Minnesota this weekend and gain more room in the standings before Monday's game, it seems like the postponement is an advantage for the White Sox--especially if Adam Dunn returns to the lineup before Monday. 

 

Alfredo Aceves Needs An Attitude Adjustment

Written by Cee Angi on .

Performance forgives a multitude of sins.

If you’re a pitcher that exudes attitude on the mound with fist-pumps, swearing, and a tense brow, it is seen as tenacity—you can Jose Valverde all over the mound, as long as you keep the saves high and runs low. But when performance starts to slip, the actions that were once signs of perseverance are suddenly less cute, often viewed as tantrums. John Lackey in 2011 is a perfect example of this: His attitude with the Angels  when he pitched well, which was most of the time) was one of his finest attributes. When he struggled in Boston last season, even when he played injured in September as the team chased the pennant, he was given little credit for his contributions.

In the case of Alfredo Aceves, the attitude has become so disproportionate to performance that it no longer registers on the scale of impassioned players just trying to win games: It’s maniacal and petulant behavior that has no place in the game. He’s gone off the deep-end in the attitude department; leaving the Red Sox and manager Bobby Valentine limited options when it comes to determining his fate.

Understandably, tensions in Boston have been high as the team continues to nurse their 64-79 record, fifth place in the AL East, and the reality that they are 16.5 games back in the division, but America’s pastime continues to be replaced with narratives about failure, cliques, and managers wanting to punch radio personalities. Since late August, Aceves’ meltdowns have been at the forefront of discussion, which is a complete 180-degree change from last season, when Alfredo Aceves was regarded as a hero.

Aceves was a bargain for the Red Sox in the 2011 off-season, signing him to a $650,000 contract following his release from the New York Yankees. He had a reputation as an average reliever, but immediately showed great potential.  Aceves became Terry Francona’s go-to in a variety of situations, the duct tape of the Red Sox bullpen. Got a starter that can’t go? Use Aceves. Have a high-leverage save situation? Aceves. Need a big out? Aceves. In desperate need of long-relief? Use Aceves.

Last season, Aceves posted the lowest ERA of any Red Sox reliever and pitched 114.0 innings in his swingman role, more than some of the starters. His presence on the mound was dominant, yet calming. He showed some emotion in tough innings as anyone would, but he was rarely unnerved. But the Aceves from last season, the pitcher who was just thankful for the opportunity, whether it be the first or ninth inning, no longer exists. Aside from the moment of reflection he takes before every inning to draw a cross in the dirt behind the mound, taking a knee to pray, the Aceves of this season could not be more difference in performance and composure, making him public enemy number one in Bobby Valentine’s 40-man circus of discontent.

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We Had All the Answers, and Rany Jazayerli Just Changed the Questions

Written by The Common Man on .

I've talked before about how my journey as a skeptical reader, a journey that eventually landed me here as a semi-respected writer on baseball matters, began with reading Rob Neyer and Rany Jazayerli's Rob and Rany on the Royals columns in my freshman dorm 15 years ago.  So it's with that same skeptical eye that I read Rany's Grantland column yesterday about Stephen Strasburg.

Rany argues that the Nationals were wrong to shut Strasburg down because, essentially, the Nats are babying Strasburg and the preventing injury in young pitchers pendulum has swung too far in this case.  Now, that's a drastic oversimplification, and the point he's making sounds eerily similar to the old school complaints that pitch counts are ruining the game.  But Rany's not decrying reduced workloads.  Instead, he's pointing out that reduced work loads have already done their jobs.

Rany takes us through a lot of the modern history of pitch counts and efforts by Saber types and seamheads to get MLB to pay attention to and avoid pitcher abuse, an effort that Rany argues has been largely successful as

"From 1984 to 1998, one out of every two young starters was still starting regularly five years later. From 1999 onward, two out of every three young starters have done so. These are the best young pitchers in the game — and their failure rate has been cut by a third. That ain't beanbag....That's the take-home point here: Major league baseball teams have dramatically altered the way they handle starting pitchers — and in doing so, they have significantly reduced the risk of injury to those pitchers." [emphasis is Rany's]

Now, to get to his conclusion, Rany uses some pretty arbitrary endpoints for his study, only looks at games started data, and goes through a ton of anecdotal data about specific pitchers.  Obviously, this makes his study far from conclusive.  You would be right to read his argument with a skeptical eye and to question his methodology like I did.  But skepticism isn't an end point in and of itself, and the issue that Rany raises is an incredibly important one if Sabermetrics isn't going to stagnate. 

Wednesday Morning Cram Session, 9/12

Written by David G Temple on .

hulk-smash

Those who know me can easily pin down some simple facts about me; my impeccable dress, my razor-sharp wit, and my ability to wax poetic about baseball. The third of these I have employed in my short time here at TPA. Not today, folks. I’ve had a really crappy day. It was a tough day at work, I lost my house key and had to wait two and a half hours to get into my house, and my fancy new smartphone apparently can’t, you know, make or receive phone calls. I’m in a mood, people. Let’s hope some baseball will make it all better.

Pitch-Thrower of the Night: Marco Estrada, 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1BB, 6 K, 0 R

I’ve said it before: were it not for the calamity that is the 2012 Milwaukee bullpen, the Brewers would be right in it this year. Technically they are still in it, and have won seven of their last ten. The Greinkeless rotation has remained very good since the break.

The Evening’s Most Prominent Batsman: J.J. Hardy, 4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 R

Look, if your team is going to make an improbable run to the postseason, somebody’s gonna have to keep the offense rolling. It’s been Mark Reynolds as of late, but J.J. Hardy helped push the O’s past the Rays last night. Yet another solid season from the sure-gloved Hardy, which should aggravate Twins fans after their team traded him for ostensibly a Free Big Gulp coupon and a used Sega Genesis.

Oooooooh, Fancy Glovework:

This is more of a display of heads-uptitude (yes I made that up), than it is of athleticism, but it’s still pretty slick.

Player Got a Boo-Boo:

Jason Hammel, who has recently returned from a nearly two-month DL stint, left the game early after aggravating the knee that knocked him out in the first place. Orioles are dropping like flies recently, but I’m assuming Baltimore will find the pitching equivalent of Lew Ford to fill in nicely until they win the World Series.

The Rest of the Best:

Mariners: Erasmo Ramirez, 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K, 2 ER, W

Sorry, Mariners fans. I had no idea who this guy was until about 15 minutes ago. Judging by his peripherals, though, I may have to start remembering his name. The Mariners improve to 32-23 since the break.

Red Sox: Dustin Pedroia, 3-4, HR, 2 RBI, R

Spoiler alert! (Sorry, had to). Boston doesn’t have much to play for the rest of the way, but ruining Yankee fans’ days/weeks/seasons should be incentive enough for anyone.

Phillies: Jimmy Rollins, 2-3, HR, 3 RBI, 3 R

Rollins, the leadoff hitter, improves his OBP to a scorching .306 on the season. The leadoff spot for the team as a whole has an OBP of .307. It’s just one stat, but wholly hell.

Indians: Carlos Santana, 3 SB allowed

This is more egregious when you consider that one of the thieves was Geovany Soto, the opposing catcher. Santana has thrown out just 26% of possible base-stealers this year. That’s Pierzynski territory.

Astros: Justin Maxwell, 1-2, RBI

Maxwell drove in the only run in what I can assume was a mind-numbing game against the Cubs that involved nine pitching changes. I’m only being slightly facetious when I say you couldn’t have paid me to watch that game.

White Sox: Jake Peavy, 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 9 SO, 3 ER, 3 HR, L

What a weird line. This game was back and forth from what I caught on MLB.tv, which makes sense when you consider one of the starting pitchers fanned nine, but also allowed two dingers. The race to mediocrity between the Tigers and Pale Hose continues.

Royals: Mike Moustakas, 0-4, 1 K, 1 BB

In a game where his team got 16 hits, Mous was the only guy not to have one. I mean, come on. Even Francouer had an RBI in this 9-1 win.

Giants: Madison Bumgarner, 2-2, HR, 3 RBI

Bumgarner pitched such a stinker that he wasn’t even kept in long enough to be the pitcher of record. He contributed in another way before his departure, though.

Diamondbacks: Ian Kennedy, 7.1 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K, 0 R

Kennedy has been very inconsistent compared to his stellar 2011 campaign, but he pulled it together last night with a very solid performance. The Dodgers are now 4-6 in their last ten over what has been a lack-luster push to the postseason by the New York Yankees West.

Cardinals: Adam Wainwright, 6 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 6 SO, 5 R

The Cardinals’ grip on that last wild card spot continues to loosen, as the Padres play spoiler in this one. There are now five teams within five games of that last playoff berth.

Athletics: Brandon Moss, 1-3, BB, HR, 2 RBI

The A’s beat the Halos again, and now own a better record than any team in the powerhouse AL East. They remain in the top spot for the wild card, and trail Texas in the West by three games.

Tuesday Morning Cram Session: 9/11

Written by The Common Man on .

The good news is that it sounds as though Brandon McCarthy is going to be ok.  The news about his recovery, after having his skull fractured by a wicked line drive back to the mound has been generally positive and he's even back on Twitter being more or less hilarious.  Disaster was, for a day at least, averted.

But what about the next screaming liner through the box?  What about the next pitcher to get struck by a ball while he's vulnerable?  Is he going to be so lucky?  Odds are, eventually, someone's luck is going to run out and somebody is going to have their career permanently altered like Herb Score did back in 1957.

The injuries sustained by McCarthy have led Dustin Parkes and Craig Calcaterra both to wonder whether the "pitching helmet" is a realistic option in this day and age.  There already is one on the market, but would players use it and what would its effects be on a pitcher's safety and mechanics?  It's hard to argue with Craig's central point that, given the opportunity, Major League pitchers will eventually almost all be using one.

This is going to drive self-proclaimed purists crazy.  We're sissifying the game, they'll argue, by placing our pitchers' safety above ascethetics (yes, the helmet looks a little silly). All of which is patentedly ridiculous.

Safety innovations have been a part of the game since the sport's beginnings.  Players used gloves both to avoid errors and to protect their fingers from getting broken.  Catchers made their gloves bigger and more padded, plus they added masks and chest protectors and shin guards.  Players added baseball caps to reduce the glare and allow them to pick up the balls quicker.  Batters used a plastic lining in their caps, then a helmet, then a helmet with ear flaps, and now a mega helmet, designed to help prevent concussions, is available.  They also used batting gloves to protect their hands, elbow pads and knee braces, and ankle guards.  Heck, even cleats are differentiated for use in dry weather and wet, in part to reduce injuries.

And then there's the difference in the field itself.  Wood, brick, and concrete walls have given way to padding and owners have almost completely done away with artificial turf in favor of grass.  Indeed, at every turn, Major League Baseball has taken steps to make its players safer and safer.  So let's not pretend that allowing pitchers to wear a helmet of sorts is going to suddenly turn the game into rhythm gymnastics.

There's no doubt that pitchers are vulnerable on the mound. And there's no doubt that, for as dangerous as it is for a batter to get hit in the head with a pitch, it's many times more damaging when a pitcher gets hit.  Pitchers have less time to get out of the way than batters do, are often in an exposed position, and the speed of the ball back to the mound combined with the pitcher's lack of safety equipment makes any potential injury they might suffer far more devastating.

And it's not as though we'd need pitchers to immediately make the change either.  It could be a gradual process by which pitchers currently on 40 man rosters are allowed the choice to use them (while use is mandated in the minors).  Or, even better, simply make them available to pitchers in the same way that elbow guards are available to hitters who want them, and allow the market to dictate whether pitchers will want them.  Where is the harm in giving players the option to be safer if they want to take it?  It's worked for every single other piece of baseball equipment that's been developed over 150 years, after all.

I get older, my baseball cards stay the same

Written by Jason Wojciechowski on .

I'm not going to go horning in on the territory of people who actually care about baseball cards, don't worry, but I do want to note that I feel a certain attachment to the old guys still hanging around baseball (Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, and Omar Vizquel, mainly, though not exclusively) in large or perhaps even sole part ("sole part"? Is that a thing?) because I used to have their baseball cards. As you might guess from the preceding sentence, I stopped collecting baseball cards a long time ago. I couldn't tell you when I purchased my last pack, but I do recall deriving active pleasure from cards in an apartment that my family lived in from the second half of ninth grade on. I'd like to blame girls or schoolwork or a social life on the downfall of my card collecting, but I think I actually ended up spending more time playing Final Fantasy VII, reading Robert Jordan, and perusing actual live box scores via our brand new AOL connection than I did kissing ladies on the mouth.

(Note: by "think I actually" I really mean "know for 100% sure"—I kissed very very very few ladies on the mouth in these years, and I read a lot of pages of Robert Jordan.)

The point here, though, is just the ending of an era. When I was in college, I'd moved past collecting cards and into a different stage of my baseball life, but huge portions of major-league players were those whose faces and batting stances I knew from collectible photographs on cardboard. Now, not so much.

One of the weird side effects of this is that I think I know what players look like far less than I used to despite taking as full advantage of my MLB.tv subscription as any person with a job and three cats can and despite my family only intermittently having a cable subscription (or occasionally, cough, a cable "subscription"—knowing people who knew their way around a telephone pole was a useful thing) when I was young. I watch orders of magnitude more baseball now than I did as a child, but I can't tell you the first thing about Wade LeBlanc's face. "Well, sure, he's Wade LeBlanc." But that's what I'm saying, you know? One of Wade LeBlanc's similar players by the Bill James algorithm as implemented at Baseball-Reference.com is Curt Young and I very much knew what Curt Young looked like in 1991. I can't recall ever seeing Curt Young pitch, though, and I'm watching Wade LeBlanc right now as I write this.

(It should be noted, though, that Wade LeBlanc never signed a card for me. Curt Young did that and by mail no less. Sent me my own card back and everything, not like those players who'd keep your card and send back a "signed" sort of pseudo-card. Barry Bonds's was egregiously bad, as I recall, particularly when I think about how much the card I sent him must be worth today. (Probably like a buck or two. I'm telling you, Bonds robbed me.))

I'm not old enough to feel all that old, not by the standards of humanity in general here in the 21st century, but cliches don't become cliches for nothing, and baseball's everlasting youth has a way of making you feel your years weighing on you with outsize force. I think I had Mike Stanton cards, but Giancarlo? He was bashing homers in tee-ball when my local card shop closing proved the last nail in the coffin of my waning interest in the things.

So yeah, Omar Vizquel? Forty-five years old, can't hit, practices the most egregious DADHAT the world has ever seen? I don't care. He can sign with the A's next year and drag my favorite team down if it'll keep him in the league, keep this Donruss "beauty" in my mind for one more year before all thsoe players are gone for good.

Monday Morning Cram Session 9/10

Written by David G Temple on .

ramirezfootball

I saw this image while watching the beginning of the football game Sunday night. I don’t pay that much attention to football, but I guess I was interested in seeing what Peyton Manning could do. Anyway, I saw this and spent about 20 seconds imagining a world where Manny Ramirez gets cut from the Athletics, takes like a crap-ton of steroids, then signs on with the Broncos as a guard. It’s silly, but, honestly, there is a non-zero chance that this might actually happen.

Whenever the football season starts, my mind always wanders to players who played in both the NFL and MLB. Actually, I am referencing Deion Sanders and Bo Jackson, since those are the only two I can remember. Drilling down on that, I mostly remember Deion Sanders since his mug is in those DirecTV commercials that inundate my TV even though I’m WATCHING DIRECTV. They must have technology to filter out ads for crap I already own. I should be able to replace those ads with clips of Bo Jackson, because Bo Jackson was a badass.

The new quarterback for the Browns of Cleveland, Brandon Weeden, first tried his hand in baseball, apparently, spending five years or so pitching in the low minors. It seems he wasn’t anything special. So he went to Oklahoma State and ended up being a good quarterback or something, and then got drafted, I guess. I don’t know. I looked him up on Wikipedia for like 15 seconds. I’m not his biographer or anything. Football is dumb, so let’s move on.

The Best Pitching Performance form Sunday, Probably: James Shields, 9 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 8 K, 0 ER 

Ricky Nolasco also pitched a complete-game shutout, but his team isn’t playing for anything, so the nod goes to Shields. This whole Rays/Yankees/Orioles thing is going to get really interesting, especially considering how incestuous their schedules are coming up.

The Best Hitter Last Night, In, Like, My Opinion, Man: BJ Upton, 3-5, 3 HR, 3 RBI 

There are a lot of exciting things about baseball, but many would consider the hitting of a home run to be the most exciting. BJ Upton did that three times. In one game! They were all solo shots, but that’s not his fault.

Best Display of Fancy-Pants Glove-Work: Ben Revere

The Twins ain’t playing for jack-diddley, but this grab to keep the game tied was pretty nifty. Bonus points go to announcer Dick Bremer for calling it the “final out of the night.” He may have said “ninth,” but envisioning Bremer turning to rye whiskey to get through this terrible season and drunkenly making mistakes on air makes me feel better.

An Injury Worth Noting:

Clayton Kershaw, of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who you may remember as last year’s Cy Young winner in the NL, was scratched from Sunday’s game against division-rival San Francisco. His injury is being listed as a right hip irritation. I find this interesting as his right hip would not be the point of push-off, considering he is a left-handed pitcher. I realize that probably no one else finds this interesting.

Some Other Things That Happened:

Yankees: Curtis Granderson, 3-3, HR, 5 RBI, R

Granderson’s line is impressive, no doubt. Would you consider it more impressive if you were to learn that he did all of these things after coming in to pinch hit in the SIXTH INNING? Because I would, and do.

Blue Jays: Omar Vizquel, 0-2, 0 BB, 2 RBI

Vizquel drove in half of Toronto’s runs without even getting a hit (two sacrifice flies). Combine this with the fact that he drove in the winning run and also that he was born when Lyndon Johnson was the president, and he gets my humble vote as most notable.

Phillies: Jonathan Papelbon, 2 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K, W, S

Philly and Colorado played a doubleheader, and Papelbon figured into both. Let’s give a hand to Charlie Manuel for using his closer for two whole innings in one day, especially considering one inning was a non-save situation. Philadelphia moves to within six games of the Wild Card. I’m not saying, I’m just saying.

Rays: Please reference the beginning of this article to learn of the best performances by Rays performers.

Twins: Justin Morneau, 2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R

The second of these home runs was a walk-off. Since the All-Star break, Morneau is batting .314/.363/.484, which is much more in line (although slightly higher) with his career statistics then the poor numbers he was putting up at the beginning of the year. A healthy Morneau is a productive Morneau. It’s a shame he’ll be out of Minnesota before he can contribute to a contender.

Reds: Johnny Cueto, 4 IP, 9 H, 1 BB, 6 K, 4 ER

Johnny Cueto – who has been, like, really good for the Reds this season – wasn’t that good on Sunday. He didn’t get any help from his offense, either, as the Astros held them to one run on five hits. Cincinnati, which still has a 99.9% chance of making the postseason, has gone 5-5 in their last ten games.

Braves: Chipper Jones, 0-0, BB

Jones only came in to pinch hit in the ninth, but this game ended his perceived reign of terror in New York. With Larry’s departure, Mets fans will have to find a new player to hate, because hating their team becomes wholly tiresome after a while.

Royals: Jeremy Guthrie, 8 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K, 0 ER

Since being traded from the Rockies for Jonathan Sanchez, Guthrie is 4-3 with a respectable, 3.70 ERA. Sanchez is 0-3 with a 9.53 ERA. This proves the point that you can never “win” a trade if you get Jonathan Sanchez.

Nationals: Edwin Jackson, 4.2 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 6 ER

With Stephen Strasburg being shut down, many thought that Jackson would be forced to assume a spot in the playoff rotation. Well, if he does, he’s going to want to pitch a lot better than he did against a fairly crappy Marlins team. I believe this paragraph qualifies as expert analysis.

Angels: Mike Trout, 1-4, 1 HR

Alberto Callaspo also hit a home run, but Trout’s went like way farther. The Angels sweep the Tigers to win their sixth in a row, and nine of their last ten. Mike Trout.

Cubs: Bullpen, 5 IP, 2 H, 5 BB, 4 SO, 1 ER

Dale Sveum used five relievers to go five innings, which means he either wants to give some young guys a look, or he is hallucinating that he is Tony La Russa. Maybe both?

Athletics: Jonny Gomes: 1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI

Gomes got the scoring started for the A’s in the 5th, and though Josh Donaldson added his own dinger in the 9th, Gomes gave Oakland all the offense they needed. Oakland moves to 3.5 games behind Texas in the division, and leads the wild card race in the AL.

Cardinals: Allen Craig, 1-5, 1 RBI

Craig only had one hit, but it was a big one. He slapped a walk-off base hit to center to win the game for the Red Birds in extra innings. They needed it, too, as Milwaukee had already won the series and still remains only six games back in the wild card.

Padres: Chase Headley, 1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI

Headley’s grand slam pushed him past the 100 RBI mark for the season. This puts him in the company of Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Willingham, and Ryan Braun. The “him” in that previous sentence still refers to Chase Headley.

Giants: Buster Posey, 2-4, 1 HR

Regarding the MVP voting: Ryan Braun will probably (and unfairly) get left off some ballots. The Mets, Padres, and (probably) Pirates won’t make it to the postseason this year. Is Buster Posey a viable MVP candidate? His numbers are good, not great, as he ranks seventh in the NL in FanGraphs WAR. However, he is a strong-hitting catcher on what will be a contender in October. There are better candidates, but Posey making a run – especially if he and his team performs well in the playoffs – wouldn’t surprise me.

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More Ned Colletti?

Written by Jason Wojciechowski on .

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (which I swear exists in this, the second-largest city in the United States, despite apparently having none of the larger cultural effect that the New York Times, or even the Wall Street Journal, has) apparently reported that the Dodgers are in extension talks with Ned Colletti. I don't really know the details, because I didn't actually click any farther than D.J. Short's piece on Hardball Talk. I'm lazy that way, and besides, the LAT has one of those paywall thingies and I don't want to waste one of my monthly views on Bill Shaikin reporting on a team I don't care about.

Anyway! We're pretty surprised by this, right? Like, this is Ned Colletti we're talking about. The team has missed the playoffs the last two years despite, as I noted, playing in the second-largest market in the country. Sure, they were hamstrung financially by the McCourt nonsense, but outside of inheriting Andre Ethier (EDIT: I'm an idiot. This was a Paul DePodesta trade. Thanks to Mike Petriello for pointing this out.), Matt Kemp, and Clayton Kershaw, what exactly has Colletti done to make this team visibly better?

To give this topic the full treatment, we'd want to look at the farm system production, at how Colletti has spent the money he has, at how the team may have underperformed what we would have reasonably expected, and so on and so on. I'm not really interested in that, though, because I don't want to take a position on whether Colletti should get his job back. I just think it's weird that he is. See that McCourt guy above? He doesn't own the team anymore. Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten, and Guggenheim Partners do. Just like new general managers often want their own guy in the clubhouse (see poor Brad Mills in Houston), owners often want their own general manager. The last time the Dodgers were sold, Frank McCourt fired Dan Evans and hired Paul DePodesta in the spot. (Of course, two years later, Bill Plaschke fired DePodesta, but that's another story.)

If the general manager is quite accomplished and/or famous such that bringing in your own man would cause a revolt in either the franchise or the fan-base, then it makes sense to stick with them. Imagine the uproar if Lew Wolff had fired Billy Beane in 2005! But Ned Colletti has neither the results that Beane got through 2005 (the 2005 offseason being Wolff's first clean chance to bring someone new in, having purchased the team in April of that season) nor the notoriety. If anything, among the kinds of fans who tend to know who general managers are and what their tendencies might be, Colletti's firing would likely be well-received.

It's interesting, then, to speculate on what it is that's caused the Dodgers ownership to keep Colletti around. It's possible that he's a better general manager than stat-nerds like me have given him credit for, the same way Brian Sabean, another sabermetric bete noire and Colletti's boss for a decade with the Giants, has turned out to be quite capable at building winning teams, especially by using talent the organization drafted and signed. The turmoil and financial limitations of the McCourt years, not just in dollars available to spend but, perhaps, the uncertainty of said dollars from year to year or month to month or day to day, should not be underestimated. Perhaps Kasten et al. believe strongly that Colletti can turn into the next Brian Cashman given Cashman's resources. (I've always wondered, and this seems as good a place to say this as any, how much Colletti's appearance plays into our perception of him. He has a rather large, bullish head, and a mustache straight out of the "rough old man" book. He just looks old school. You know? And what if he didn't? What if he looked like Brian Cashman? What would we think of him?)

It's also possible that there's a weird trick of timing arising from the fact that Colletti acquired six trillion dollars in future obligations in an attempt, in part, to compete this season. Ownership approved all of this, of course, but one can imagine a feeling of being in a corner, of wanting to fight one's way out to show the beaten and abused Dodgers fans that the team is different now, that they're worth supporting, and that the best way to do that was to acquire guys like Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez. And then once those guys were on the payroll, well, how absurd would it be to take the team away from Colletti at that point? Giving Colletti the right and the responsibility to see the thing through makes a certain amount of sense. If he fails, well, you just hope he fails in a way that only costs money and doesn't cripple the organization for five years to come.

Or maybe he's just got dirty pictures of Magic Johnson.

Tuesday Morning Cram Session, 9/4

Written by The Common Man on .

I'm afraid our Cram Session is very truncated this morning, given that today was the first day of kindergarten for The Boy, and so I'll be playing catch up all day at work.  There were no tears from The Boy or his parents, just a good attitude and a quiet acknowledgement that he was where he belonged.  He went right in, acted like he'd been going to elementary school forever, and got right to work making a macaroni necklace with his name on it.  My kid's awesome that way.  And neither The Uncommon Wife or I had any qualms about leaving him.  We knew he was ready for the next step.

You have to know when your youngsters are ready to take that step.  For instance, if you're 28 years old and have spent the last four seasons racking up 11 strikeouts per nine in 154.1 AAA innings, and have a 2.27 ERA in those four years, it's pretty clear that you've earned the right to prove yourself at the Major League level.  Especially when your organization is on the way to its second straight 95 loss season and has an opening on its 40 man roster.

But if you're name is Anthony Slama, and all of those things describe you, apparently you aren't done being dicked over by the Major League franchise that controls you in your serfdom (the Minnesota Twins), and who steadfastly refuses to give you a chance to prove yourself for reasons that are not apparent.  I can't wait for Slama to sign with the Rays or the Padres this offseason, and spend the next six years as an object lesson in how to build a good bullpen on the cheap as a giant "screw you" to the Twins.  Free Anthony Slama!