Stephen Strasburg Inning Limit: The Game

Written by Cee Angi on .

StrasburgPerhaps you've heard, but there's been a bit of rumbling that the Washington Nationals might decide to limit the number of innings that Stephen Strasburg is allowed to pitch this year.

As the brightest star in the Nationals rotation, Strasburg's health has been of utmost concern, especially since he returned to the roster post-Tommy John surgery. The Nationals have been clear in their message: Preserving Strasburg, even if it means putting him on a inning limit, could be nessecary to ensure success in future seasons...but the specifics about what that really means have yet to be defined. 

Will the Nationals limit Strasburg's innings? 

What happens if it's a tight race in the NL East and there's high-leverage situations leading into the playoffs?

What if the Nationals make the playoffs?

There are so many questions and speculation around what will happen with Strasburg this season, we here at The Platoon Advantage have decided to take a different approach: We've decided to turn the Inning Limit into a game. 

How the Game Works

We will create a table containing all possible Innings Pitched by Stephen Strasburg (his final season total, including playoffs), and you can select up to 2 values. Squares can be reserved on a FIRST COME, FIRST SERVE basis. If you select a value that has already been reserved, we will contact you and allow you to make another submission. 

The deadline for selecting squares will be Wednesday, August 22nd

After the 22nd, we will post a copy of the table so that everyone can track their picks, and at the end of the season, we will take a look at Strasburg's Innings Pitch Total for the 2012 season (plus playoffs), and the participant that got the closest without going over will be the winner. 

What Does the Winner Get?

The winner of the Stephen Strasburg pitching game gets free Tommy John surgery. No, we're just kidding. The winner will receive a fantastic prize that will include a currently undefined piece of baseball memorabilia. The prize won't suck, I promise. 

This Sounds Fun! How Do I Enter?


To enter the Stephen Strasburg Inning Limit Game, you'll need to follow these Four easy steps!

1. This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with "Stephen Strasburg Inning Limit: The Game" in the subject (or SSILTG, if you will)


2. In the body, include the number of innings you think Stephen Strasburg will have pitched by the end of the season (inning limits can range from 133.1 to 210.0 IP). You may select UP TO 2 values. *NOTE: Your guess should INCLUDE any post-season innings pitched. 

3. Include your Name, Email Address, and Twitter handle (if you have one)

4. We'll send a confirmation as soon as we've processed your submission and have ensured that those values are still available.  If the values you have chosen are no longer available, you may select again, before the deadline. Remember: Squares are available on a First Come-First Serve Basis. 

 

Good Luck Everyone...and share with your friends. 

Tuesday Morning Cram Session, 8/14

Written by The Common Man on .

Farewell to Johnny Pesky, one of the last great Red Sox lifers, who debuted as a 22 year old in 1942, hitting .331/.375/.416, leading the American league in hits  (and sacrifice hits) and finishing 3rd in the MVP vote.  Then, like so many other young men, Johnny Pesky went to war.  He was stationed in the Pacific, and lost three seasons serving his country.  He returned in 1946 and led the American League in hits in both of the next two seasons.

Given the incredible start to his career, and the value he provided surrounding his time in the Navy, it’s tempting to wonder whether Pesky could have been a Hall of Fame quality player if the War hadn’t intervened.  This seems unlikely, given that he probably lost out on, at best, 15-18 WAR during his time away.  That’s not really enough to push him into consideration, especially given how short his career was (10 seasons), how he was pushed to 3B when he was just 28, and that he was essentially done as an everyday player by the time he was 32.

That’s not to say Pesky didn’t have the talent for it.  He was a very valuable player despite having almost no power.  His .394 career OBP is 9th in the lively ball era among players with a slugging percentage below .400, and puts him in the same category as guys like Richie Ashburn and Luke Appling, just with a much shorter career and less positional value.  Pesky would actually be a great choice for the next edition of the Hall of Nearly Great (which you should absolutely buy if you haven’t yet), a terrific player, a tremendous teammate, and the consummate Red Sock.  Rest in peace.

no comments

Monday Morning Cram Session, 8/13

Written by The Common Man on .

If the Will Middlebrooks and Kevin Youkilis situation has taught us anything, it’s that having good players is a good thing and teams should not be so quick to forfeit their depth just because they have a positional logjam.  If you missed it last week, Middlebrooks has gone down with a broken wrist, forcing the Red Sox to turn to Twins castoff Danny Valencia to man the hot corner.  While Middlebrooks has been struggling in the wake of the trade that sent Youkilis to Chicago for two relative non-entities, but he still represents an upgrade over anything that Valencia can offer, except for his ability to find something to whine about while sitting in first class on a plane over Twitter.

While a lot of us were quick to slag on the Diamondbacks for muddying up their outfield this past offseason (a point brought up by Matthew Pouliot last week), Arizona actually increased their depth by bringing in another quality, and undervalued, corner bat, freeing up Gerardo Parra to be the best (and most used) 4th outfielder in the game.  Parra’s filled in for Kubel and Justin Upton at times and has taken over in CF when Chris Young was out for a month earlier this year.  He also, now that Young is back and unable to hit a righty, would make a hell of a platoon partner out there for Young.

Similarly, all of us wondered what the Angels were going to do with all their outfielders, first basemen, and DHs, but that has largely sorted itself out thanks to Mark Trumbo’s willingness to move around, Bobby Abreu’s release, and the merciful decision to sit Vernon Wells.  The club could have dealt Peter Bourjos when it was clear how good Mike Trout was going to be, but in keeping him they have a valuable and skilled backup who can be plugged into any outfield spot (despite his offensive struggles).

Far too often, we underrate depth and positional flexibility when we look at how teams are constructed, especially in this age of 12 and 13 man pitching staffs.  Teams that can find the best 2nd string talent (like the Yankees did with Eric Chavez and Andruw Jones) to help carry them through stretches where their stars are out with the inevitable injuries wind up having a tremendous advantage over teams like the Red Sox, who are now forced to turn to a 27 year old who has hit .236/.278/.367 over the last two seasons, and who couldn’t even find a place on one of the worst teams in the American League, instead of the team leader who had spent nine seasons in Boston and has the 126 career OPS+.

no comments

Insert Rage: The Nationals are Actually Going to Shut Down Stephen Strasburg

Written by David G Temple on .

letstrasburgpitch

 

It’s been more or less confirmed that the Nationals are actually going to go through with shutting down Stephen Strasburg after he hit his innings limit, which has been solidified at 180. After months of speculation, Washington has established that they are, indeed, going through with this really dumb idea.

I am not nor have ever been a major-league GM, nor will I pretend to be privy to the thinking going on at the Nationals front office. But I can say if I were a Nationals fine, I would be irate.

Everyone understands, of course, that the Nats are thinking of the future with this decision. Strasburg is their most valuable asset, and he’s coming off major surgery to his elbow. They don’t want to leverage their future for one playoff push when there is possibly a lot more coming. Maximizing the return on your investment is important, but according the all-knowing Fangraphs, Strasburg has already provided over twice the value of his $15M contract, and that’s with only pitching 24 innings in 2011.

With the exception of perhaps the Reds, I don’t see any real challenge to the Nationals (in their current state) once the postseason starts. That certainly doesn’t mean they are unbeatable, however. The Nats are starting to get some of their better hitters (Zimmerman, Werth) healthy again, but they still rank below average in runs scored. If they are going to make a run in the playoffs, they will need to pitch well. Shutting down their best starter to “save his arm” is going to make their team worse at the time when they need to be their absolute best.

And what are we talking about in the end here? If we assume that the Nationals make the World Series, and take every previous series to the last game, Strasburg will pitch about 30-35 extra innings when it’s all said and done.

And since when are the Nationals experts on keeping pitchers healthy? If your friend flips his car (multiple times), he’s in no position to give you driving lessons.

This great run could end quickly for the Nationals. Nothing is certain. Maybe the Reds are on the verge of a dynasty. Perhaps the Mets are really going to challenge the AL East next year. Maybe the Phillies trade Cliff Lee in the offseason for some young pieces that can contribute right away. That injury bug the Blue Jays have this year? Who’s to say Washington won’t catch it?

Please pitch Strasburg to the end, Nationals. If the team falls short this postseason, and Strasburg is just sitting in the dugout like a pile of car parts, a lot of fans won’t forgive you. I wouldn’t. Imagine the boos you’ll hear when John Lannan has to come in to spell a struggling Ross Detwiler in Game 4 of the NLDS, and your dynamic fireballer is just staring into the middle-distance from the bench. This is your chance to win the franchise’s first World Series. Don’t start pulling punches now.

Dave Cameron did some Dave Cameron things and plotted out how Washington can limit Strasburg during the rest of the season, and still have him for the playoffs. But even if the Nats subscribe to this well-thought-out model, that still leaves only one start for Strasburg in the postseason, assuming they don’t need him to secure their spot in the playoffs. One playoff start from Strasburg is better than none, but it’s still gonna suck big time to see him shut down during the postseason.

Success for mid-market clubs is gained by finding windows. Washington’s window is wide open at this moment. Shutting down one of the best pitchers in the league due to a completely arbitrary number is closing that window a little. And once it’s totally closed, it’s anyone’s guess when it will be open again.

This is your moment, Nationals. Don’t mortgage the present for a lottery ticket on the future. Flags fly forever. You have a chance to raise the first in team history. Grab that chance by the haunches and hump it all the way to the World Series.

no comments

Friday Morning Cram Session, 8/10

Written by The Common Man on .

Maybe it was The Common Man's imagination, but he seems to have seen a whole mess of people getting bent out of shape over Manny Machado's promotion to the Majors.  And while TCM understands the impulse to A) protect youngsters and B) criticize the Orioles, maybe we don't have to be jumping to down Dan Duquette's throat about this one.

For one thing, Machado's an elite prospect who has held his own at 19 in AA Bowie, hitting .266/.352/.438.  While his strikeouts are a little high (70 in 459 plate appearances), he shown good patience and decent power, especially for his age.  Plus, Machado has been playing professionally for the last two years now, so it's not like he's fresh out of school.  Finally, his name is awesome.

None of that necessarily means he's ready.  In fact, chances are he has some growing pains ahead of him as he adjusts to Major League pitching.  But what do the Orioles really lose by calling him up now?

Baltimore is flagging in the standings in the AL East, but still has an outside chance at that and one of the two Wild Cards.  And they have a major liability on both offense and defense in Mark Reynolds, and Chris Davis has hit just .220/.290/.374 since the All Star break.  Machado at least gives them an option at 3B (and a competent backup at SS) to allow the O's to sit either Davis or Reynolds.  Yes, the chances of Machado being more than a game improvement over the combination of Davis and Reynolds is unlikely, but for a team that has been competitive for the first time since 1997, it's understandable that they would go all out to try to win in a wide open race for the postseason.

It's not like Machado's losing a lot of development time here either.  There's just one month left in the minor league season, and Machado stands to see plenty of action at the big league level.  There's some concern that promoting him early might mess with his confidence if he crashes and burns, but it's hard to believe that an elite prospect like this couldn't overcome a small hiccup in his otherwise unbroken path to the Bigs.  Heck, failing may actually help him in the long run, as Bryce Harper's current struggles might help him to learn to deal with the ups and downs of a professional baseball career.  And to focus on the possibility that Machado might lose confidence ignores the chance that playing well in the Majors helps his confidence.

Finally, there's the service time argument.  Perhaps by bringing Machado up now and starting his service clock, the Orioles will lose prime years of Machado's career.  That's certainly a possibility if the Orioles are foolish.  But there are any number of ways to manipulate the service time of a prospect so that the club doesn't wind up losing those years.  Or he could make the Orioles out of Spring Training next year, and make the whole argument moot.  Or, given the way teams are locking up their young stars these days, there's every reason to believe the O's will give Machado a long term deal if he proves to be effective that will buy out more of those prime seasons.  So chill out about the service time.

Ultimately, this is a move that's about trying to catch lightning in a bottle and take advantage of Machado's upside.  There's a very good chance that, no matter what Machado does, it won't matter in the final standings.  But there's also very little risk to letting him try.  And it certainly makes the Orioles a hell of a lot more interesting.

So in that spirit, Machado gets our award for

Debut of the Night:  Manny Machado, 2-4, 3B, 1 R

Thursday Morning Cram Session, 8/9

Written by The Common Man on .

No prologue today, as being sick and having sick children has sapped The Common Man's will to live.  Something will be up on the site later today however, so check back.

Pitcher of the Night: Clayton Richard, 9 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K, 0 R
Shouldn't there be an S on the end of Richard's name? Does that bother you too?  Look, Richard is eating innings, and he pitched a nice shutout against a bad team (have the Padres and Cubs been playing each other exclusively for the past three weeks?  It seems that way).  But he's been a completely different pitcher (in the bad way) since last year, when the shoulder started to bother him.  He's striking out far fewer batters and now is allowing an alarming number of homers.

Hitter of the Night: Giancarlo Stanton, 4-5, 2 HR, 2B, 2 R, 4 RBI
Boy, isn't it nice to have this guy back?  Stanton missed 25 games, during which the Marlins were 8-17.  They've won both games since he's been back.  This is not solely because of Stanton, mind you, but really doesn't it feel like it should be?

Play of the Day:  Mike Trout

Keep in mind the degree of difficulty here.  Trout turned 21 on Tuesday, which means that, in all likelihood, he made this leaping grab at the wall with a hell of a hangover.

On underratedness

Written by Jason Wojciechowski on .

Today at ESPN, I'm going to be part of a Triple Play featurette with Josh Worn and Molly Knight on the subject of baseball men who are underrated. I won't reveal here who my picks were, but I mostly played it straight: I picked a hitter and a pitcher who I think are thought of as lesser players than they really are.

The subject, though, raises all sorts of issues that I could wish were addressed by writers who take "underrated" as their subject. Worn, Knight, and I were given sixty words (or thereabouts) to explain our choices, so we couldn't exactly get into these questions there, but I think what I'm writing about here applies to those pieces you see every year by some mainstream columnist who either expresses his own opinion on which players aren't receiving enough attention or polls a fig-ton of major-league front-office executives (hopefully after the trade deadline so you don't just get GMs pumping the guys they're trying to move).

A Tale Of Two Lefties

Written by Cee Angi on .

I went to the Chicago White Sox game last night, and received a text message from infographic artist extraordinaire Nick Tavares, who was at a bar watching the Boston Red Sox play the Texas Rangers. 

The text message read, "I get rage twinge whenever I see Andrew Miller warming up."

I countered with, "Me too, though I'm at the Cell watching Chris Sale pitch."

Baseball fans have a long history of struggling with Andrew Miller, because his performance has never quite matched his projected potential. Miller was drafted in the first round of the 2006 draft by the Detroit Tigers (6th overall pick) and his 6'7", 210 lb left-handed frame had folks clammoring since day one that he would be the next Randy Johnson, but so far he hasn't come close. 

In Miller's seven-year career, his 5.20 ERA, 1.703 WHIP, and 5.2 walks per nine are cringe-worthy. His command issues have bounced from the majors to the minors to the bullpen and back again, with changes in his mechanics and sessions fixing issues temporarily, only to backslide into mediocrity. Miller has had success in the Red Sox bullpen this season, his walk-rate (3.3) and ERA (3.25) the best he's posted in his career, but I can't say I fault Tavares for being nervous and anxious when he's warming in the bullpen: At any moment the Andrew Miller Experience of the past could return...and for anyone who has experienced that first hand, you know how difficult it can be to stomach. 

The follow-up text, which is something I've said before, is that White Sox starter Chris Sale, who made the transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation and has flourished, is the anti-thesis of Andrew Miller--they are different in nearly every possible way. After a few more texts in the exchange, Tavares did exactly what I'd hoped he would do: He created a Venn diagram comparing the two pitchers. 

Enjoy. (More graphics created by Nick Tavares can be found here. If you're a sports or music fan, I suggest you check out his work). 

lefties740

Tuesday Morning Cram Session, 8/7

Written by The Common Man on .

Who could hate this face?Yesterday, the Royals...well, shocked is too extreme...surprised a lot of us when they just let lefty reliever Jose Mijares go.  When he was claimed by the Giants on waivers, the Royals didn't put up any kind of a fight, and didn't try to work out a deal to acquire talent in return.  Instead, they just let the Giants have him.

Mijares is by no means a bullpen ace.  He's severely limited to a LOOGY role, given that righties have hit .272/.357/.429 off him in his career, but he's been good in that role, allowing lefties to hit just .212/.277/.328.  He's having a good season too, with a 2.56 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 38.2 innings, and the second best K/BB ratio of his career.  And finally, he's cost almost nothing for the Royals, with his $925,000 salary and being under team control for two more years.

So what could have prompted the Royals to give him away?  Well, Matthew Pouliot, of the normally excellent Hardball Talk thinks he has the answer:

"There’s one obvious answer here; Mijares was a real problem in the clubhouse. That was part of why the Royals dropped Yuniesky Betancourt on Sunday, and Mijares has long been viewed as something of a headcase. The Royals obviously didn’t think he’d be worth keeping around in 2013, so they figured they might as well let him go now."

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Back up. This is the kind of baseless and completely uncorroborated speculation that would be rightly pilloried if it came from a member of the mainstream media or by an amateur blogger.  Pouliot isn't just arguing that Mijares is out of shape, he's arguing that he's a bad teammate.  He's arguing that Mijares is a bad guy.

Up until this year, Mijares played in Minnesota, a team with which TCM has had a passing acquaintence over the years.  To The Common Man's recollection, no one has ever accused Mijares of being a problem in the clubhouse before.  But TCM thought he should double check, so he countacted both Parker Hageman of Twins Daily and Jesse Lund of Twinkie Town, neither of whom could remember any incidents or accusations, or rumors that Mijares wasn't a good clubhouse guy.  Indeed, they confirmed TCM's recollection that the primary problem with Mijares, from the Twins' perspective, was his shoddy conditioning.

Now certainly, Mijares's poor work habits are a source for concern for whoever he plays for, but that's still a vastly different kind of accusation than saying someone is a troublemaker.  Teams are willing to put up with the fat guy who can still perform (see Babe Ruth, Bobo Newsome, Greg Luzinski, Boog Powell, Rich Garces, John Kruk, Kirby Puckett, Tony Gwynn, CC Sabathia, etc).  But teams are not willing to put up with a marginally talented player who's not a good teammate.  And once guys get fitted with that label, that they're "bad guys", they quickly see their opportunities dwindle.

Pouliot should know better than to go off half cocked without quotes, or without at least confirmation from someone with the team.  Instead, he's just as bad as Murray Chass and his ilk, who use innuendo and unsubstantiated gossip to turn Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell into steroid freaks who molest small children and once pushed an old lady into oncoming traffic.

If you have anything to substantiate this, Matthew, present it.  If not, retract it.  Hardball Talk is supposed to be much, much better than this.  Even with a player so inconsequential (and occasionally frustrating) as Mijares that TCM is a little embarrassed to be going to bat for him.  When you go after a guy on the field, it's one thing.  When you talk about legitimate performance issues (such as conditioning), that's ok.  But to throw accusations around at marginal players like you're in the middle of an elementary school food fight is inexcuseable. It doesn't make you a journalist who's brave enough to find out and shout the truth from the highest mountaintop.  It doesn't make you smarter than everyone else who doesn't have the insight to follow your non-existent trail of breadcrumbs.  No, dragging somebody else's name through the mud with nothing even resembling proof makes you an asshole.

On Yuni

Written by Jason Wojciechowski on .

I'd just like to make a quick point about Yuniesky Betancourt, who was until recently an infielder on the Royals of Kansas City and who was unceremoniously dumped this very day. (I'm writing on Monday even though you're not reading until Tuesday, so it counts.)

First, a refresher for those who forgot about Yuni: Back in 2006-07, Yuni played a lot for Seattle and put up solid offensive numbers for his position while butchering the defensive side of the ball; in 2008-09, he was a complete cipher on both sides; in 2010, he was good, weirdly, as an everyday player with a little bit of pop; in 2011, he was a bad everyday player; and for 2012, Dayton Moore signed him up to be a backup infielder with the Royals. Yuni promptly hit .228/.256/.400, which is pretty good pop still, but nobody can survive a .256 on-base percentage. Pair that with his usual lackluster defense, the fact that a youth movement is underway in Kansas City, and the most key point of all, that Betancourt was on a cheap one-year deal that leaves Moore eating very little money by releasing him and you've got a recipe for DFAin'.