Stop and think, for just a second, about for how long Derek Jeter has been a sabermetric punchline. 

At first it was the holy trinity of shortstops, which made Jeter kind of a joke because A-Rod >>>> Nomah >>> Jeter, right? Then there was the advent of play-by-play data and The Fielding Bible, which (sanctioned by Bill James!) definitively proved that Jeter was the worst defensive player of any kind ever, while he was winning three straight Gold Gloves at shortstop. Then there's his renaissance year of 2009, when the joke was his supporters' argument that he deserved the MVP in the face of the years Joe Mauer and Zack Greinke were having. Then there was the two years preceding this one, when Jeter combined below-average offense with defense that was 24 runs below average per Total Zone, and looked very much like an albatross the Yankees were going to be stuck with, for PR reasons, for essentially as long as Jeter wanted to stick them with himself. Then there's the joke that Jeter might hang around for long enough to challenge 4000 hits or Pete Rose's all-time record, all while killing the Yankees at SS. Hilarious!

Let’s get this out of the way up front.  Curt Schilling is an unbelievable asshole.  Schilling is a fiscal conservative who decries government spending, but who went against his deeply held beliefs by taking a $75 million loan from the state of Rhode Island to relocate his video game company, 38 Studios, to the state.  38 Studios has since defaulted on loan payments, laid off all its employees (in violation of further conditions of the loan the company took on), and been accused of defrauding said employees.  And still, Curt Schilling is criticizing Governor Lincoln Chafee for not publicly backing the insolvent company and deferring the loan payments, “The governor is not operating in the best interest of the company by any stretch, or the taxpayers, or the state.  We’re trying to save this company and we’re working 24/7.  The public commentary has been as big a piece of what’s happening to us as anything out there.”

Sure, it’s ridiculous to watch Schilling complain about the government, when that government helped his company to expand and simply wants Schilling and his company to abide by the agreement he made with it (an agreement Schilling applied for and made of his own free will; nobody forced him to take it).  But you know what?  Curt Schilling is probably right.  Schilling is a big cultural deal in New England, and he’s a central figure in sports history.  So when Curt Schilling’s video game company defaults on a payment for a government loan, it’s a far bigger deal than if some anonymous video game company run by actual business people and techies defaults on a payment.  It garners far more attention, and that attention puts political pressure on the governor and the regulatory agencies in Rhode Island to make sure that Schilling’s company either succeeds wildly or becomes an example for other companies not to fuck with Rhode Island (a more ridiculous phrase has never been written) and for taxpayers that their politicians are watching over their money responsibly (if somewhat belatedly).

This, friends and loved ones, is what you'd call a timely piece reacting to the news, with the news in question being that boos rained down on Bryce Harper when he made his major-league debut in Dodger Stadium and that subsequent to said boos many members of the Baseball Twitterati condemned the entire city of Los Angeles as uncouth and unsporting. Japes about leaving the game early were made. You get the idea.

So here's the thing: why do we care what other fans do? For that matter, why do we care what the fans of our own team do? Why do we care what anyone does at the base ball game if no one gets hurt?

Here's who I'm totally cool yelling at: people running onto the field, people touching a ball that's in play, people throwing stuff, people who get in fights, people who cuss too much when kids are listening, people yelling racist, sexist, homophobic, or otherwise bigoted things, and people who shove other people to get a foul ball (or even a home-run ball). There are probably a few others, but that's mostly it.

Whitey Herzog may have stepped in it yesterday, when he apparently intimated he tried to tank games in St. Louis on purpose to improve his draft position:

“At one point, Herzog admitted that, had the new format been in place when he managed, he might have tried harder to finish second.

Three of his teams finished third, and Herzog said he sometimes managed to finish third on purpose, not second place, as a way to improve draft-day positioning the next season."

The commentariat of HBT is up in arms over this, naturally, comparing Herzog unfavorably to Pete Rose and suggesting that Herzog be drawn and quartered during the 7^th inning stretch of the All Star Game.  Before we get to that point, however, maybe we should look at what actually happened during his tenure with the Cardinals (he never finished lower than 2nd as a manager for the Royals, so we don't need to worry about that).

From 1982-1989 (his last full season at the helm), Herzog finished outside of first or second place five times, in 1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, and 1989.  Did Herzog do anything differently during those years in September?  Let’s take it a year at a time:

Let us suppose that today's waiver of Orlando Hudson represents the end of the road for the man we rather uncreatively called O-Dog. (Let's in particular note that Hudson's middle name is "Thill." That's way cooler than "O-Dog.") His defense presents another lens through which to examine the way defensive reputations, offensive production, and Gold Glove voting line up.

Hudson was known as a defense-first second-baseman, racking up four Gold Gloves in five years from 2005 to 2009 while hitting respectably but never gaudily.¹ He won the first in the AL, taking over for Bret Boone, who won three straight before falling off the map in 2005.² Hudson's move to the NL was fortuitously timed, as Luis Castillo, who'd won the award from 2003 to 2005, moved to the Twins in 2006, thus leaving the NL without a presumptive winner. FRAA, Baseball Prospectus's fielding system, which does not make use of subjective ball-in-play data, had once thought highly of Hudson, figuring him for +44 runs at second from 2003-2005, but beginning in 2006 and running through the rest of his career, he was merely a tad above average each season. Maybe he really liked the turf in Toronto, maybe his recurring hamstring injuries caught up to him, or maybe it's one of those quirks of fielding stats.

Jack Morris!

Okay, so I haven't done one of these birthday posts in at least two months, and I just happened to check today's birthdays, and Morris just happened to be one of them, and given the amount of crap he takes around here, I felt compelled. This will generally be a celebration of Morris' career, but I have to note this: Morris turns 57 today, and shares his birthday with Rick Reuschel (63), Rick Rhoden (59) and Watty Clark (would have turned 110 today), each excellent pitchers in their own right. By Baseball-Reference's WAR, Morris is a distant second among pitchers born on May 16 in years within two years on either side of the Korean War, coming in 25.3 WAR behind Reuschel. Just had to get that off my chest. 

Morris grew up in St. Paul, Minnesota and attended Brigham Young University, though his numbers as a collegiate have apparently been lost to history (note: I didn't actually look that hard). But he was good enough that the Tigers took him with the second pick of the fifth round (the 98th pick overall) in the June 1976 draft. He shared the fifth round with Bruce Benedict, Mike Smithson, Ted Power, and no one else you've ever heard of, but the guy taken just two spots before him -- with the final pick of the fourth round -- was pretty good himself.  Aside from Rickey, the draft was pretty weak; the one other real prize apart from Morris was also taken by the Tigers -- Alan Trammell, in round 2 -- and they also got Morris' 1984 rotation co-anchor, Dan Petry, in round 3. The Tigers also nabbed Ozzie Smith in round 7, which, if they'd signed him, would probably have made it a historically great draft for them.

Morris' minor league record was...undistinguished. Following the draft in 1976, he reported to AA Montgomery, where Morris threw 36 innings in twelve games (nine starts), walked one batter for each inning and struck out only half as many, giving up 31 runs (25 earned) in those 36 innings. They nonetheless advanced him to AAA Evansville for the 1977 season, and Morris was certainly better, but didn't look much like a future star: 20 starts, 135 innings, 3.60 ERA, 42 walks, 95 strikeouts. The Tigers relentlessly soldiered on, promoting him to MLB in late July. Morris made one big-league relief appearance followed by six starts, going 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA (115 ERA+) despits 23 walks against only 28 strikeouts in 45.2 innings.

I wouldn't be a blogger if I didn't begin this post by apologizing for my lengthy absence from these pages. I have a variety of excuses. Would you like to hear them? Drop me a line if you would. We'll chat it out.

Mickey Hatcher got fired today. He had been the Angels' hitting coach since 2000, when Mike Scioscia took over the manager role. Twelve full seasons of hitting coaching, and beginning a thirteenth, seems like a really long time, although you'll note that I'm an A's fan. The A's buy hitting coaches by the gross and swap them out whenever they're feeling grumpy, so my perception on the question of how long hitting coaches last might be skewed. The Angels are, of course, not hitting. They're ahead only of the Twins (sorry blogfathers) in runs per game, which means that both the A's and the Mariners are scoring more than the Angels are. They've actually got some guys hitting well as individuals: Howie Kendrick is slugging .464, Mark Trumbo's got one of those early-season absurd slash lines, Kendrys Morales is doing exactly what Angels fans hoped he'd do, and Mike Trout has a .306 True Average since being called up a few weeks ago.

The problem is that there have been three notable offensive sinkholes, one of which has been devastating: Albert Pujols is still, 149 PAs into the year, hitting .197/.235/.275. That's not acceptable on any team at any position besides pitcher, and we've seen Albert Pujols throw. He's no pitcher. Aside from Prince Albert, there's Erick Aybar, who's hitting about what the first baseman is except with less power, and Vernon Wells, who is replicating his incredible 2011 to a frightening degree: .218/.248/.412 and .233/.258/.408. Which is which? It doesn't matter, and I've already forgotten. The point is that it sucks.

What does Mickey Hatcher have to do with this? We all know that slumps and randomness and getting old just happen, and hitting coaches get hired and fired and nothing ever changes. Right?

The Twins are 8-23, the worst record in baseball by a large margin, and there’s no doubt that this is a terrible baseball team for the second year in a row.  It’s incredibly disheartening.  Here are all the things that have gone wrong over the last 18 months, in roughly chronological order:

1) Twins trade JJ Hardy and Brendan Harris for two minor league relievers.

2) Twins win the rights to and sign Tsuyoshi Nishioka from Japan for a total of $18 million.  Nishioka hits .226/.278/.249 in 68 games.

3) Twins sign Matt Capps for one year, $7 million.

4) Francisco Liriano shows up to Spring Training out of shape, and is urged by the Twins to “pitch to contact”.

5) Bungled treatment of a wart in the offseason requires foot surgery and keeps Michael Cuddyer out of Spring Training for almost a full month.  He starts the season 3 for 28 (.107/.194/.107) through 9 games.

6) Kevin Slowey and Twins clash over role and injuries.  Is publicly mocked by members of the Twins administration and the broadcast team, is sent to AAA, and eventually is traded for a minor league reliever.

7) Joe Mauer is not properly recovered from offseason knee surgery, but pushes through Spring Training.  Is shut down with leg and back problems after starting the season .235/.289/.265 through 9 games.  Finishes with worst season of his career.

8) As a result of this, and an offseason trade that sent Jose Morales to Colorado, Drew Butera plyas 93 games, has a 24 OPS+.

9) Joe Nathan is installed as closer less than a year after having Tommy John surgery.  His velocity is down and he walks 8 batters in 10 innings while striking out 7.  He loses the closer job to Matt Capps and eventually goes on the DL.  Capps has the lowest strikeout rate of his career, surrenders 10 homers in 65 innings, and blows 6 of 21 save attempts.

10) Justin Morneau plays through his concussion symptoms, hits .225/.281/.338 through June 9 before re-aggravating the problem, and shutting down for two months.  He returns for a month and continues to struggle before being shut down for the year.  Finishes with worst season of his career.

11) Hitting .294/.361/.385, Denard Span suffers a concussion while sliding into home.  He returns after almost two months off, and goes 2 for 35 and is shut down again for another month.

12) Danny Valencia and Delmon Young both play like Danny Valencia and Delmon Young.

13) Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn pitch like Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn.

14) Without adequate depth or the means to acquire it, the Twins give a full-season’s worth of plate appearances to the combination of Luke Hughes (.223/.289/.338) and Matt Tolbert (.198/.252/.266).

15) With Matt Tolbert, Michael Cuddyer, and Denard Span injured but not on the disabled list (though Span would soon go on it, and Cuddyer missed 11 days with a neck injury), and Jason Kubel attending to a family emergency, the Twins play most of an August 18 game against the New York Yankees with no bench players because Luke Hughes missed his flight to Minnesota from Rochester because he was sitting at the wrong gate. Joe Mauer has to play right field.  Hughes shows up in time to pinch hit for Drew Butera in the bottom of the 9^th and strikes out swinging.

16) Twins win 15 of 17.  It’s Happening.  Lose next 6.  It’s not.

17) Scott Baker suffers an elbow injury. Starts 8 games after the All Star Break.  Continues to complain of soreness in 2012 Spring Training. MRI and team diagnosis does not catch the need for Tommy John Surgery, which is discovered during a related procedure.  Misses all of 2012.

18) Twins lose 30 of 36 games from August 18 to September 24.

19) Twins sign Jason Marquis for one-year, $3 million. Marquis misses much of Spring Training to be with his daughter, who suffered life-threatening injuries in a bike accident.  Marquis starts 2012 in the minors, is promoted after 2 starts.  Has 6.26 ERA through 5 starts, having struck out 10 batters in 27 innings.

20) Twins sign 38 year old utility man Jamey Carroll for two years, $6.5 million, who hits .218/.312/.264 through 30 games and loses the starting shortstop job to Brian Dozier.

21) Francisco Liriano continues to fall apart, posting 9.45 ERA through 6 starts with 19 BB in 27 innings.

22) Nick Blackburn pitches like Nick Blackburn.

23) Liam Hendriks proves unready to pitch in the majors. Gives up 18 runs in 18 IP, with 9 strikeouts and 5 homers allowed.

24) Luke Hughes makes the team again. Goes 2 for 10 and is DFAed.

25) Chris Parmelee, who has no experience at AAA and is a career .266/.355/.436 hitter in the minor leagues, is given the 1B job on the basis of a strong September in 2011 and 2012 Spring Training.  He hits .203/.263/.297 through 80 PAs, has not started last three games.

26) Ben Revere starts 2012 in the Majors, but only starts 3 of 6 games and is sent to AAA.  Recalled 12 days later, he goes 3 for 7 with a walk, a double, and 2 runs scored in back to back games. Is promptly returned to AAA.  Is currently hitting .309/.351/.324 with 6 stolen bases.

27) Instead, the Twins play a combination of Trevor Plouffe (.149/.298/.234) and waiver wire pickup Clete Thomas (.143/.172/.286 with 16 Ks in 29 PAs).
3B and PH Sean Burroughs gets 18 plate appearances in 22 games. Goes 2 for 17 with a walk. Plays in the field three times.  During this time, the Twins are carrying 13 pitchers and 3 bench players.  Is DFAed.

28) Drew Butera is back, baby.

29) Justin Morneau starts hot, hitting .267/.353/.578 with 4 homers (as many as he hit in all of 2011) through 12 games.  But he injures his wrist in Tampa, and proceeds to hit .172/.250/.276 through the next 8 games without a day off. At some point, complains that wrist is hurting.  Is sent back to Minnesota for an MRI on April 30.  MRI shows “no structural damage” according to team doctors, and Morneau rejoins the team.  Morneau stays on the bench for another four days before the team puts him on the Disabled List, essentially choosing to play with a 1 or 2 man bench the whole time.

30) The Twins lose 23 of their first 31 games.

31) May 10, Jason Marquis, Ryan Doumit, and Trevor Plouffe allow an Edwin Encarcion pop up at home plate to plop to the ground, untouched, between them, allowing Yunel Escobar to score from second base; thus perfectly encapsulating the last 18 months.  See it above, as .gif'ed by @CheapSeatChron.  It is ruled a single.

DID YOU KNOW? While the world has obsessed over Matt Kemp's awesomeness and Albert Pujols' terribleness and Jamie Moyer's oldness and Bryce Harper's youngness, professional baseball has also been played by at least like fifty other people! It's a thing I'd forgotten for a while, what with those things, and the unmitigated disaster that has been the Twins' season, and real-life stuff. So last night, I spent a little time poking around Baseball-Reference and Baseball Prospectus, and I learned a number of things I didn't know that, as far as I can tell, nobody outside of these players' teams' own markets is talking about. Here are six of them:

1. I'd say Jake Peavy is back, except he's probably never been this good.

The top three MLB leaders in rWAR, through yesterday are all pitchers: Jered Weaver (who, perhaps, shouldn't count because he's gotten to make three of his seven starts against the Twins) at 2.3, Stephen Strasburg at 2.4, and Peavy at 2.5. It's not quite as overwhelming by WARP or fWAR, but Peavy's second among pitchers in both. He's put up a 1.99 ERA through 45.1 innings in his first six starts, he's done it largely against good offenses, and he's more or less earned it, with a 2.22 FIP. 

Peavy was a very good pitcher at his peak, back in the middle of the last decade, but probably wasn't quite as good as the crazily forgiving Pecto Park made him look. He led the league in ERA twice, but never in Adjusted ERA+, and he won the Cy Young Award in 2007, but finished just fifth among pitchers in rWAR. He's never been nearly as effective over a full season as he has been through these first six starts -- that 2.22 FIP would be his career lowest by more than half a run. 

The way in which he's doing it is a bit odd. Peavy's strikeouts are down by almost two per nine (to a still-very-good 7.74) compared to his peak, even though his pitch selection and velocity has stayed about the same, and strikeouts league-wide have consistently gone up since then. He's made up for it by more than halving his walk rate from that period, to a 1.19 rate that's currently third in the AL, and his 6.5 K/BB rate is best in the AL. The one warning sign is that another big part of how he's doing it is by permitting just 2 home runs to date, despite having the highest fly ball percentage in baseball to date (min. 30 IP). He plays his home games in an especially homer-friendly park, so if that continues, you have to expect a lot more balls to leave the yard. But for now, he's clearly healthy, and he's been outstanding.

The Common Man will cop to being more than a little obsessed with how badly the Twins are playing right now.  It’s like a car accident that TCM just can’t look away from.  The central trouble, as TCM mentioned earlier this week, is the team’s abysmal pitching, specifically the entire staff’s inability to strike anyone out.
But looking at the Twins’ horrendous start, TCM was compelled to wonder whether it could possibly get worse.  How bad can a pitching staff be?  To answer that, The Common Man went back and looked at every club who allowed at least 20% more run than the league average since 1903 to understand teh upper limits of pitching badness.  If you want to see the complete list of teams in spreadsheet form, click here.  Meanwhile, here are the ten worst pitching staffs of all time, based on the numbers TCM looked at: